Governance, Violence, and Economic Development as Drivers of Emigration: A Time-Series Analysis of Net Migration in Jamaica, 1970-2024

Abstract

This study examines the long-term determinants of net migration in Jamaica from 1970 to 2024, utilising a time-series modelling framework. The primary objective is to analyse how governance quality, homicide rates, unemployment, life expectancy, and GDP per capita influence emigration patterns. Drawing on both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) methodologies, the research reveals key drivers behind migration trends. Governance emerged as the dominant factor in the OLS model, accounting for over one-third of the explained variance in net migration. At the same time, GDP per capita showed the strongest temporal predictive power in the ARIMAX model. The study highlights that poor governance and high crime rates significantly increase emigration, while better economic conditions and higher life expectancy serve as deterrents to emigration. The findings align with global theories of migration and contribute to the understanding of how macro-structural variables influence individual migration decisions in a Caribbean context. The implications are particularly relevant for Jamaican policymakers seeking to mitigate the brain drain and promote domestic stability. This paper contributes to the literature by integrating structural, political, and economic factors into a dynamic statistical model, providing empirical evidence to inform national development and migration policy.